I've been somewhat distracted of late with the Olympics, as I guess have one or two of you. It's always been the same with me as far as the Olympics are concerned......I just cannot get enough and spend unreasonably long hours cheering, crying, and enjoying this feast of sport. But there are enough things written about this without me adding my tinpot analyses. So instead I'm going to return to a subject that has been making the news on a daily basis in Spain this summer and one that I too have covered in some detail.
Forest fires or wildfires are ravaging Spain this summer. Every day the local news carries details of some new outbreak in the locality. The national news too covers the larger fires that are by no means limited to our locality, Valenciana, but are occurring nationwide. Spain it seems is suffering an epidemic of fires this year as a result of limited or little rainfall and higher than normal early summer temperatures. And as you may know, we had a particularly large forest fire blazing near us recently - in fact to my knowledge, in terms of the area destroyed, it is still the largest fire in Spain this summer - and this started me asking questions.
Before this recent episode I didn't have any experience whatsoever of wild or forest fires. Before moving to Spain this was merely something terrible that happened in those parts of the globe that most of us only visit for our holidays. They were not something that I had to be particularly troubled about, as awful and destructive as they can be. But when we saw that huge pillar of smoke just behind our house forest fires immediately became something that can now impact very heavily on our lives, and that stirred me to start asking some questions.
Why are there so many fires in Spain? Is this just a normal state of affairs here or is this year the veritable annus horribilis for the forests of the Iberian peninsula? Are there records detailing the state of the forests in Spain with regard to numbers and frequencies of fires in Spain? The fire behind us destroyed an estimated 70,000 hectares of forest - now to me, that seems an awful lot. Is it possible that the total area of forest in Spain is unsustainable given the current level of incendios in the region?
This is a complex investigation and one that may well take some time to complete fully, but that said, maybe it is an something that needs doing. Questions need to be asked because this is surely a situation that cannot continue.
So, let's start with some basic facts. I'll try to provide evidence to back up my 'facts' and I will endeavour to say when an observation or data point is anecdotal rather than a proven point of fact.
The facts:
Spain does not have high rainfall (see Table 1 at the bottom. Data from the World weather service and refers to the Valencia region and not Spain as a whole) and this as much as anything else must have a serious effect on the number, size and distribution of forest fires. As a consequence, since 1993 the Spanish Meteorological Office have been producing a daily map (see an example of this type of map in Figure 1.) that assesses the daily risk (of forest fire) for each and every region of the country, the aim being to offer support to the various agencies that work to prevent and fight the fires.
Figure 1. An example of the type of map produced each day by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología to assess the risk of a forest fire occurring.
As you can see from the map the region around Valencia is classified normally as an area of 'muy alto' or very high risk. But how does this translate into actual fires?
Figure 2 (below) was compiled by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and shows (on the left) the average density of forest fires per year per sq.km (apologies if the figures seem a bit small but it's the largest I can make it). As you can see, compared to Europe as a whole the Mediterranean region has a much higher incidence of fires than the more temperate, wetter regions to the north. The areas of dark red have an incidence of fires above 0.61 making it slightly greater than a bi-annual occurrence in these places. The map on the left shows the percentage of land that is burned on an annual basis as a percentage of the total forest as a whole. You will see the two maps are almost interchangeable and that the incidence and consequences of the fires in areas of high risk appear to be strongly linked. Around the Valencia area the two maps are again comparable with an incidence of fires of between 0.21-0.60 and an average percentage burned each year of up to 0.91% of the total forest area, which I admit doesn't sound like awful lot.
Figure 1. Average forest fire density and average burned forest fraction in Europe (1998-2007).
It makes sense that areas with higher rainfall would suffer a much diminished risk when compared to areas of relatively low rainfall. With that in mind, let's take a closer look at the Mediterranean region as a whole. Figure 2 (all graphics taken from the UN site ) below shows the numbers and amount of forest destroyed each year in the Mediterranean region. The left-hand graph shows the area (in thousands of kms) between 1980 and 2008. You will note that the area destroyed by fires has not gone up in the region and may even have fallen slightly over the listed period, but without the raw data and a stats enabled computer I cannot say this for sure. The right-hand graph lists the number of fires which shows a definite rise during the 90's and the early part of this century, but does appear to have fallen slightly in more recent years.
Figure 2. Number of fires and burnt area in the EU-Mediterranean region.
Figure 3. Number of fires and burnt area in the non-Mediterranean region of the EU.
If we now take a look at the non-Med region of the EU (Figure 3) the first thing that jumps out is that the amount of forest lost outside the Med is far, far lower than around the Med. The worst year (left-hand graph) listed is 2000 when an estimated 120,000 kms of forest in the non-Med region were lost (I had no idea that the figures would be quite this large and to say I'm slightly horrified is to put it mildly). But compare that now to the best year for the Med, when in 2008 180,000 kms were lost (Figure 2). More than 50% more than northern Europe and that is the BEST year listed. In the worst year (1985) over a million hectares were lost but with an average well in excess of the cooler Northern regions. However, whilst the numbers of fires in the non-Med region (Fig. 3. right-hand graph) is lower than around the Med itself, the numbers are infinitely more comparable.
As for Spain as an independent data point, the number of fires annually has increased from just over 13,000 in 1991 to just below 20,000 by 2001 (the last year of exact figures published by the UN right now) with a high of 26,000 in 1995. Portugal too has seen a similar but slightly more extreme rise in the numbers of fires from 13,000 to over 26,500 for the same period with any high or bad years being tied to those witnessed in Spain. This would imply that any root causes in the incidence of fires for the Iberian peninsula as a whole are uniform and may well be meteorologically related.
As a comparison the incidence of fires in Italy actually shows a trend towards a decrease during the same period from 11695 down to 7134. As a personal observation Greece, which has a similar climate to Spain has but a fraction of the number of fires that we see here. The average number of fires between 1991 -2001 inclusive (i.e 11 years of data published by the UN) in Spain was 19203 compared to Greece's 4558, a figure almost 75% less.
In terms of actual area destroyed the UN figures include all land, be it forested, woodland or otherwise. During the period 1991-2001 inclusive the average area destroyed in Spain was 152122 hectares (ranging from 59842 in 1996 to a high of 437635 in 1994). In Italy the average was 110437 hectares (range 48884 to 195179) and in Greece 56117 hectares (range 13046 to 167006).
Data on the percentage of actual woodland destroyed is only published for the final 3 years (1999-2001) making conclusions on this more difficult. In Spain in 1999 a massive 94.5% of the land destroyed was forested of which 29% was listed as 'high forest' (though the altitude above which a forest becomes high forest is not detailed). In 2000 the percentage burned dropped to just over 91% (24% high forest) and in 2001 dropped again to 20.7% of which all was 'high forest'.
The causes of forest fires in Spain, as elsewhere, are many and may range from human causes (negligence, arson or some other criminal activity) to natural causes (high ambient temperatures) though the root of many may remain unknown. In 1999 just under 71% and in 2000 76% of fires in Spain were attributed to arson, though an exact breakdown on these figures is unavailable. If anyone has data on the number of convictions resulting from these figures it would be appreciated. Of the remaining fires (29% and 24% respectively for 1999 and 2000) 12% and 9.5% were attributed to accidents (or negligence) with agricultural machinery and <1.9% and <1.3% to logging and forestry operations. Data for Italy and Greece are unavailable for comparison.
In Spain, by far the majority of land is destroyed as a result of criminal activities (86%, 90% and 49.8% respectively for 1999-2001 inclusive) which is a worrying statistic if nothing else.
In their 'Fire Management - A Global Assessment' booklet the UN confirm that the 'forest fire situation in the Mediterranean basin is largely determined by climatic conditions'. Long summers with prolonged high temperatures above 30C reduce the moisture content in forest litter (pine needles and the like) to less than 5%. 'Under these conditions even a small addition of heat (lightning, a spark, a match, a cigarette) can be enough to start a violent conflagration'.
The wind too plays it's part with the summer winds desiccating the parched land and the winter winds also blowing dry but cold. City dwellers also apparently show 'a particularly poor understanding of the dangers of fires and their potentially negative consequences' and many fires result from the burning of waste during recreational activities. However the numbers of fires caused deliberately with a destructive intent is also on the rise with some of these arising from the want of a particular individual to 'change the land-use classification'.
And here I shall end this rather long blog entry. I shall continue in the next entry with further analyses of this growing problem.
Thanks for reading
P XX
| Table 1. Climatological Information from the World Weather Service | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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