Local elections give Rajoy the jitters!

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Tomorrow...a Sunday.....sees local elections in two Spanish provinces; Galicia and the Basque country, who will both be voting for their regional governments.  The results will be watched eagerly, not just by Mariano Rajoy, a Galician himself, but by many across Europe in the wake of yesterday's announcement by Angela Merkel that direct re-capitalisation of the (many) Spanish banks who are teetering on the brink of collapse will not happen immediately, if at all.

A worried Mariano Rajoy.

Spain is a country in crisis.  To live here is to be party to the desperation of the people.  Hope is now a dirty word as the nation sinks deeper into crisis and, to be honest, it's very worrying.

The Spanish are a people who do not like change and even when the rest of the world was cowering beneath the falling debris of the of the economic crisis many Spaniards were happy to ignore the signs and carry on as before.  But not anymore.

Spain is changing.  And it's changing rapidly.  But not, I would suggest, for the better in the short-term.  Things are going to get a lot worse before they start to improve.

Unemployment in Galicea is at 21% (as it happens lower than the national average) and is rising every month.  Rajoy, once the local hero, is fast becoming Rajoy the embarrassment, even though he may just hang onto power in the region as a result of the popularity of the PP candidate Alberto Núñez Feijóo (below).  Even so, there is expected to be a rise in the prominence of local nationalists which have a knock-on effect with further elections next month in other provinces.

 Alberto Núñez Feijóo

In the Basque country the situation is more complex, with the new radical nationalist coalition, EH-Bildu expecting to gain substantial support in their push for Basque separatism.  A year ago Eta, the Basque terrorist movement 'officially' renounced violence and since that time the radicals have moved towards a more political and democratic process with EH-Bildu (which actually means 'Basque country gather') blazing the way.

EH-Bildu did not take part in the 2009 elections (because they were formed after this time) and might be expected to gain considerable local influence after tomorrow elections.  Polls indicate that unemployment will be the key issue in an area where the rural vote has always been majorly important.  But even here it beggars belief that the radicals do not offer solutions to the problems for the electorate to mull over but instead spend their campaigning time slagging off the other parties and their mismanagement of the economy, employment, etc.

Heaven forbid that they might offer a new way of looking at things!  Radical by name only it seems! 

And one cannot help but wonder if, once tomorrows results are known, and the celebrations (what the Spanish do best of all!) are over, if anything will actually change.

Spain is a country in flux, but the paradox is that whilst change is being forced upon the nation by the recent austerity measures and an economy that looks to be sliding ever deeper into the red, nothing actually changes. 

Everyone bitches and moans about the lack of cash in their pocket and the complete and utter absence of prospects for the current U25's, no-one really wants anything to change.  If things could just go back to how they were 4 or 5 years ago then the majority of Spaniards would settle for that.

As a political and social policy, sticking one's head in the sand isn't usually a vote winner, but then Spain is a place apart, still reeling from a Francoist hangover and a black-market economy that bleeds the life from Spain as a vampire bat drains a vein, Spain is a nation lost in the political wilderness, wandering aimlessly, but forever looking over the shoulder to the good old days of a few years before.

Historically Spain has been stuck in a time-warp since the era of the Armada and as an Englishman living here I find many of the attitudes and 'customs' (for want of a better term) similarly dated, old fashioned and out-moded.  On the face of it, a staunchly Catholic country, where incongruously church attendances are actually lower than in the UK, yet religious holidays hypocritically fill the calender.  Any excuse for a party!  And as an electoral tactic holding local elections on a Sunday is a no-brainer.  It will almost certainly lower turnout because church is such a good excuse not to vote, whether you actually attend or not.

In the Basque region then the radical nationalists may well find themselves as the one of the new voices of the people.  If, as expected, a similar trend is seen in Galicia with the nationalists pulling together with the communists, separatists and the ecologists, it may spark further disharmony with the Catalonian electorate who hold their elections next month.  And if Artur Mas, Catalonia's President, is re-elected he has already promised a full referendum on the question of Catalonian independence, which may well be the first of many similar referendums all over Spain.

As one of Spain's richest provinces the outcome of the Catalonian referendum could be crucial for the future stability and unity of the Spanish state, especially since Mas yesterday agreed to work more closely with Basque nationalist leader Iñigo Urkullu on the issue of their respective sovereignty claims, further weakening the stance of Rajoy as he attempts to paper over the vast cracks that are fracturing this ever-more fragile and sick nation. 

What the future holds here I don't know.  As fast as people say 'it can't get any worse' it just does!  And it keeps getting worse.  I'm pessimistic about the immediate future of Spain simply because they seem to be unable to adapt to the changing economic climate.  There are no new solutions for what are a host of new problems and until someone actually stands up and offers something truly radical as a possibly way out, then Spain will continue to flounder as its' people go from bad to worse.

What do you think?

P XX

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Eta, Spanish nationalism and the future

Hey!
Hope you had a wicked weekend.....I did...somewhat quiet, but to be honest that's the way I like it!

So, what's happening today?  Eta have hit the headlines again over here because they are finally expected to renounce violence as a means of achieving their aims.  Eta (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna - Basque Homeland and Freedom) have been in slow decline for decades now, their ability to strike fear into the hearts of the Spanish people has lessened gradually to the extent that most people no longer feel scared by the homespun terrorist threat. 

Founded in 1959, at the height of Franco's power, Eta has fought for over 4 decades for Basque self-determination.  The Basque region is surprisingly small when viewed on a map and encompasses 4 small Northern Spanish provinces and a part of South-West France.  From such humble beginnings they have gone on to kill over 800 people in a reign of terror lasting 53 years.  There have been several abortive attempts at some sort of reconciliation in the past, the latest of which came in September 2010 when there was a called for a 'permanent ceasefire.'  However, as on previous occasions the Spanish government rejected the ceasefire as worthless without an acknowledgement that they would renounce violence as a method of achieving their aims.  This was not forthcoming and the ceasfire has remained unratified.

But now comes the news, that with Kofi Annan's visit to the Basque region this week, that Eta may be finally ready to agree an end to violent campaigning.  There have been calls from convicted Eta members, as well as Sinn Fein leader Jerry Adams, to embrace the cause of peace and I fervently hope that this week they may finally see the light.

As an Englishman living in the Iberian peninsula it has been hard to sometimes get a handle on the Spanish psyche.  Each region appears to be fanatically introverted in its' political persuasions and affiliations.  The Basque region, with all the (negative) publicity and interest in the region because of Eta is perhaps the best known of these political and cultural entities. 

In all there are 17 provinces in Spain, similar to the counties of England or the States of America.  In many of these regions there are distinct dialects which are spoken only locally.  In Valenciana, for example, the local language is, not surprisngly, Valenciano.  It is a language with an Indo-European heritage that I'm told has many similarities to French.  Not that I am able to spot any of those...to see Valenciano written down is like looking at Welsh - you just have no idea at all how to even begin to pronounce the words - but if you're French then you can just waltz in, chat away and most people will understand you.  The Iberian peninsula is hotbed of dialectic activity with 6 major Indo-European languages being spoken.  If you then count each separate dialect the number balloons to (depending on who you read) perhaps more than 20 distinct languages/dialects! 

The Basque language though stands out as being distinctly un-Indo-European.  Its' origins are still unclear but the Basque language is perhaps most similar to that historically spoken in the French region of Aquitaine.  It is thought to pre-date all the other Spanish and Iberians tongues and go back to a time before the Roman conquest of the peninsula.  This would make enormous sense to me.  Whilst the other languages all have a common antecedent, probably dating back to the Romans, the Basque region (and also that of Galicia) remained largely untouched by the Romans simply because of the difficulty of accessing the region.  The Roman influence was inevitably stronger closer to the Mediterranean coastline and waned the further inland they attempted to go.  Following the decline of the Romans the various Iberian tribes sub-divided the peninsula and over the following 4-500 years re-inforced local cultures, traditions and languages, so that by the time the Moorish invasion began in the early 700's Iberia was a mosaic of different peoples, cultures and languages.

Once again during the African occupancy both the Basque regions and Galicia were left largely alone and so in these regions local culture and language were able to ingrain themselves even further.  Even up to the time of the Napoleonic Wars Spain, although a single nation under a single monarch, was still largely regionalised.  The vastness of the country and the endless mountainous terrain went to make travel from one region to another difficult in the extreme, and helped to reinforce local differences and cultures. 

Since the death of Franco in 1975 Spain has undergone huge mechanical and structural changes.  The infrastructure, for example, has improved beyond all recognition.  There are now very good road and rail links between the various regions that have had the effect of improving trade and making the course of any journey much more comfortable.  But the Spanish themselves though, remain hugely introverted in their social and business lives.  Very few young Spanish go travelling, for example, preferring to stay at home where things are much safer and more secure.  Even fewer ever leave the town of their birth to go and live and work elsewhere, let alone move to another region of the country.  And whilst I applaud the family values that still pervade every level of Spanish society, this 'homebody' attitude has led to a dearth in Spanish patriotism with people more likely to wave their regional flag than that of their nation (except during the World Cup), with many commentators citing this as the reason that a unified Spanish identity is all-but absent.  In my local schools they teach in Valenciano a lot of the time and not Castellano (the national language) once again reinforcing the local factor.  If you go 50km down the road inland from my house they wouldn't understand a word of it!  People take their holidays and stay at home to be with family.  All very nice but the spirit of adventure is completely lacking, especially in the young which I find somewhat disturbing.

And in a roundabout way that brings me back to Eta.  If that announcment is indeed forthcoming and they opt for a more peaceful way of promoting their ideas then I am all for it.  The Basque people are a tough, uncompromising lot, who value their solidarity and uniqueness in a world which is becoming evermore homogenous and same-y!  But for me though, an alien in a strange land, I will continue to be amazed and puzzled by attitudes that differ so greatly from those I grew up with.  That Eta have fought so strongly and for so long for their own cultural identity can be explained largely by their unique history and cultural heritage.  Their methods have been gravely wrong and I in no way support or advocate this.  Peaceful and organised protest is the way.  If you want things to change do it through the polss and elections.  Stand up and counted if you feel that strongly.  And that i what I hope they intend to do in the future.

As to whether a separate Basque state would be a viable entity I am not qualified to answer.  I merely observe and wonder.  I am still in a position where the Spanish mentality is somewhat perplexing, but the anwers are all there I believe, if you take the time to look.  The Spanish cherish family, friends and local culture, appearing to care little for the outside world, let alone what happens on the other side of Spain.  It is introverted and it is simplistic in the basic of ways, but it retains a certain charm that I love.

I understand the feeling one must have when, out for an evening stroll (as families do here) you know everyone that you bump into, intimately, as you have known them from the day you were born.  The attractions are manifold, but I do wonder if this small town mentality will serve Spain well in a world awash with globalisation.  Everyone is suffering because of the 'Crisis.'  That is nothing new.  But still people refuse to travel 30km down the road for work because it takes them away from the bosom of their family!  Still they show no interest in changing a financial and fiscal system that plainly does not work.  And why?  Because they cannot see beyond the ends of their noses.  But a change is what is needed here.... a radical change...to get the country up and running again.  But apathy among the electorate is a rampant disease and I fear that the villagers and short-sighted businessmen who refuse to look beyond their own borders, will find very soon that this Crisis has a lot bigger bite than any of them could ever have anticipated.

Levels of unemployment, particularly in the under 25s is criminal.  But still the system does not change.  Starting your business here is a mission in futility.  The red tape, the soaring costs and the lack of help and benefits make it difficult in the extreme for any budding entrepreneurs to even take their first step towards success.  So, like everyone else, they take the easy route because financially, that is the only route the government leave open to them - they work, yes!  But they work in the black economy, so therefore pay no taxes at all, whilst all the time many continue to collect healthy unemployment benefits and other social payments and then everyone wonders why the country is going bankrupt!!!  Doh!

If the Spanish want their unemployment figures under control they must change the system.  But I, like everyone else, know that won't happen.  Why should it?  If you were working, paying no tax, but earning good money and were still able to collect ample free payments on top, would you want it to change?  Not me!!

Where else in the EEC can one go into a builders merchants, or a garage, or a large retail outfit or a garden centre and be offered 2 prices for what you wish to purchase.  One with tax.  And one without.  As to which you choose might depend largely on whether you may wish to make a 'guarantee claim' at some point in the future, in which case the taxable option is best.  But, in many cases and particularly with large purchases, the short term gain by paying between 15-18% less on your items is a very attractive proposition.  As I write no doubt, millions of Euros in lost taxes are just disappearing this way simply because the system allows it.  It´s incredible, really!  And it has to be seen to be believed!

So, to some extent I understand and sypathise with those Basques who want to change the system.  I would only disagree with their methods in the past.

Reading back over this blog now I´m not quite sure what my point was, or even if I had one to begin with, not it really matters I suppose.  I've had my say and that is what blogging is all about.

Back again soon
Peter