Local elections give Rajoy the jitters!

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Tomorrow...a Sunday.....sees local elections in two Spanish provinces; Galicia and the Basque country, who will both be voting for their regional governments.  The results will be watched eagerly, not just by Mariano Rajoy, a Galician himself, but by many across Europe in the wake of yesterday's announcement by Angela Merkel that direct re-capitalisation of the (many) Spanish banks who are teetering on the brink of collapse will not happen immediately, if at all.

A worried Mariano Rajoy.

Spain is a country in crisis.  To live here is to be party to the desperation of the people.  Hope is now a dirty word as the nation sinks deeper into crisis and, to be honest, it's very worrying.

The Spanish are a people who do not like change and even when the rest of the world was cowering beneath the falling debris of the of the economic crisis many Spaniards were happy to ignore the signs and carry on as before.  But not anymore.

Spain is changing.  And it's changing rapidly.  But not, I would suggest, for the better in the short-term.  Things are going to get a lot worse before they start to improve.

Unemployment in Galicea is at 21% (as it happens lower than the national average) and is rising every month.  Rajoy, once the local hero, is fast becoming Rajoy the embarrassment, even though he may just hang onto power in the region as a result of the popularity of the PP candidate Alberto Núñez Feijóo (below).  Even so, there is expected to be a rise in the prominence of local nationalists which have a knock-on effect with further elections next month in other provinces.

 Alberto Núñez Feijóo

In the Basque country the situation is more complex, with the new radical nationalist coalition, EH-Bildu expecting to gain substantial support in their push for Basque separatism.  A year ago Eta, the Basque terrorist movement 'officially' renounced violence and since that time the radicals have moved towards a more political and democratic process with EH-Bildu (which actually means 'Basque country gather') blazing the way.

EH-Bildu did not take part in the 2009 elections (because they were formed after this time) and might be expected to gain considerable local influence after tomorrow elections.  Polls indicate that unemployment will be the key issue in an area where the rural vote has always been majorly important.  But even here it beggars belief that the radicals do not offer solutions to the problems for the electorate to mull over but instead spend their campaigning time slagging off the other parties and their mismanagement of the economy, employment, etc.

Heaven forbid that they might offer a new way of looking at things!  Radical by name only it seems! 

And one cannot help but wonder if, once tomorrows results are known, and the celebrations (what the Spanish do best of all!) are over, if anything will actually change.

Spain is a country in flux, but the paradox is that whilst change is being forced upon the nation by the recent austerity measures and an economy that looks to be sliding ever deeper into the red, nothing actually changes. 

Everyone bitches and moans about the lack of cash in their pocket and the complete and utter absence of prospects for the current U25's, no-one really wants anything to change.  If things could just go back to how they were 4 or 5 years ago then the majority of Spaniards would settle for that.

As a political and social policy, sticking one's head in the sand isn't usually a vote winner, but then Spain is a place apart, still reeling from a Francoist hangover and a black-market economy that bleeds the life from Spain as a vampire bat drains a vein, Spain is a nation lost in the political wilderness, wandering aimlessly, but forever looking over the shoulder to the good old days of a few years before.

Historically Spain has been stuck in a time-warp since the era of the Armada and as an Englishman living here I find many of the attitudes and 'customs' (for want of a better term) similarly dated, old fashioned and out-moded.  On the face of it, a staunchly Catholic country, where incongruously church attendances are actually lower than in the UK, yet religious holidays hypocritically fill the calender.  Any excuse for a party!  And as an electoral tactic holding local elections on a Sunday is a no-brainer.  It will almost certainly lower turnout because church is such a good excuse not to vote, whether you actually attend or not.

In the Basque region then the radical nationalists may well find themselves as the one of the new voices of the people.  If, as expected, a similar trend is seen in Galicia with the nationalists pulling together with the communists, separatists and the ecologists, it may spark further disharmony with the Catalonian electorate who hold their elections next month.  And if Artur Mas, Catalonia's President, is re-elected he has already promised a full referendum on the question of Catalonian independence, which may well be the first of many similar referendums all over Spain.

As one of Spain's richest provinces the outcome of the Catalonian referendum could be crucial for the future stability and unity of the Spanish state, especially since Mas yesterday agreed to work more closely with Basque nationalist leader Iñigo Urkullu on the issue of their respective sovereignty claims, further weakening the stance of Rajoy as he attempts to paper over the vast cracks that are fracturing this ever-more fragile and sick nation. 

What the future holds here I don't know.  As fast as people say 'it can't get any worse' it just does!  And it keeps getting worse.  I'm pessimistic about the immediate future of Spain simply because they seem to be unable to adapt to the changing economic climate.  There are no new solutions for what are a host of new problems and until someone actually stands up and offers something truly radical as a possibly way out, then Spain will continue to flounder as its' people go from bad to worse.

What do you think?

P XX

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Spain's fiscal crisis: What does the future hold?

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The last few days the headlines have all been about Spain's struggling economy and how they are going to meet the rising level of debt the nation has now incurred given that they are paying well above the 'unsustainable' 7% level that triggered bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland.  Stock markets around the world plummeted on Monday and again yesterday as investors ran for cover amid fears that several regional governments in Spain would be asking the central government for further funds to pay debts they are currently unable to meet.  Both Valencia and Murcia yesterday asked for further funds to stave off the possibility of complete bankruptcy and this morning Cataluna followed suit in what, commentators say, is the most cash-starved and debt-ridden Province in Spain.

The 7.52% interest rate that Spain is now paying for it's 10 year loans is surely unsustainable in a country with little or no manufacturing industry, an unemployment rate of 24.4% and an economy so firmly entrenched in depression that without drastic and prompt intervention will surely cease to operate in any functional way.  In Brussels yesterday Spain's Secretary of State for EU Affairs, Inigo Mendez de Vigo, tried to deflect attention from the immediate problem by pointing his finger at the "worrying gap between the decisions which are taken at the European Council and their implementation" following the last Euro summit (in June) where it had been agreed that part of the EU's €700bn bailout funds could be used to purchase bonds of those nations struggling to meet their debt repayments, thereby easing borrowing costs.  However, inaction seems to be the order of the day with Germany also under pressure following the notice given by Moody's (ratings agency) that they may face a downgrade in their credit rating if things don't change, sparking mounting speculation that Germany may end the year in in an unprecedented recession.

In the Independent (Hamish McRae-The Independent) Hamish McRae talks about the 'inevitability' of the break-up of the Eurozone with Greece surely on way its' way out.  Discussion, he says, has now switched to the pluses and minuses of Spain and/or Italy leaving as well as Greece, putting Euro politicians in a sort of political no-mans land, unsure of what to do or say in the face of an unheralded economic depression. 

Faced with mounting fiscal debt and strife governments have previously been able to devalue their way out of a loss of competitiveness or inflate their way out of excessive debt in order to conceal any fiscal shortfalls, but within the Eurozone such tactics are not possible.  Not so long ago when the Eurozone was visibly strong, standing shoulder to shoulder added not only financial strength and clout but increased political and social stability within the continent.  But once the cracks started to appear the shoulder to shoulder aspect has been shown to be a weak and one dimensional policy that is now threatening to undermine the very core of the zone itself.  Greece, then Ireland, then Portugal have wobbled.  Now comes the turn of Spain, and possibly Italy too who may well be getting sucked into the same cycle of over-hiked interest rates and unsustainable repayment levels that is causing all the worry in Spain.  Now in place of fiscal strength and political power we have so many political dominoes lined up, just waiting to be toppled over by the next financial earthquake. 

In Spain, as well as in most of the developed world, we are facing rising dependency rates with more and more people unemployed and rising numbers of pensioners each year, and all at a time when tax revenues are dropping globally and people are demanding and expecting more from both their hard earned pennies and their hard-pressed governments.

So what is the answer?

There is no simple, one rule which can be applied to every situation in every nation with guaranteed success.  Politicians the world over are facing new challenges and will need to find new answers to new problems if the Eurozone and the rest of the developed (or capitalist, if you prefer) world is to return to some sort of stable profitability.  I don't believe that breaking up the Eurozone will be the saviour that many suggest.  The investment, financially, socially and morally is surely too great now to enable a gangrenous limb or two to be severed in order to save the torso.  At this stage treating the affected areas is a far better course of action than just lopping southern Europe off, a policy that would without doubt lead to a 2-tier Europe, and have disastrous social and political consequences around the Mediterranean nations that may well spill over into a more serious and violent reaction that could drag the whole of Europe into renewed military conflict.

A bit extreme perhaps but extreme conditions provoke extreme measures.  Poverty, hunger and strife have led to many a revolution and should such a 2-tier Europe arrive then jealousy, bitterness and anger would be added to the list of grievances in the poorer, sunnier regions of Europe.  I can't talk about how people in the cities of Spain are coping because I have no experience of this, but in the campo, in the countryside you can see the desperation on the gaunt, hungry faces of the people.  With more and more imported cheap foods and crops the arable land of Spain is being left to rot.  Young kids do not want to work the fields for an income that is dropping relative to the cost of living each and every year.  More and more fields are just left to rot and overgrow.  Whole crops wasted because it now costs more to pick and transport the yield than it can be sold for - signs at the sides of roads inviting passers-by to 'help themselves' to the crop are becoming a sad but increasingly desperate sign of the times.

Hardship is felt most by those at the bottom of the pile and in Spain, as in most countries, it is the rural areas that suffer the most.  People try to hide their strains behind a smile and a wave, but once the smile has dissipated you can see eyes shooting furtive, worried glances at the faces of their children, at the holes in their clothes and the vacant places in their wallets.  When they talk of their children's future it is not of Spain now, but of getting out.  This is something new in a society where the family is, by tradition, everything.  Now they talk of their children's future being elsewhere, somewhere apart from Spain, somewhere far away from the hardships of the parents.  And for many parents now, that is all there is left.  Many of those middle-aged men and women who are currently unemployed truly never expect to get a job again in their lives.  Spain, they say, is finished.  This economic depression will last a generation or more here by which time they will dead and their children will be gone. 

And as for Spain?  They don't know, but whatever future lies ahead for Spain it is not envisaged to be a bright one.  I can only hope they are wrong.

P XXX

Bull Running in the Streets......Culture or Cruelty?

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The closest village to where I live is Villar del Arzobispo, a tiny pueblo a few kilometers away.  This weekend Villar held its annual running of the bulls fiesta and I went down to take a look.  On Saturday evening it all started very late, which is quite normal for Spain, but not for me!!  By 1am I was flagging and the party had just begun!  And I'd forgotten the camera anyway, which was a shame because the night running is slightly more spectacular due to the fact that they tie fire brands to the bulls horns to enrage it and spice up the show for the spectators!  Don't get me wrong, it's cruel, it's almost medieval and it's 100% Spanish, but it is still spectacular, exciting and fun! 

This is the time of the year for the bull runnings all over the country.  Last week it was in Casinos (the other pueblo close to me) and this week it was Villar.  Whilst I missed it in Casinos, I was determined to see what it was all about in Villar, so this morning, armed with cameras I ventured into Villar again for a further peek.

The crowds were already gathering and I wandered in (it's all free) and found myself a suitable spot to wait.  The bulls are kept in shipping containers before they are released one at time for the entertainment of the waiting crowd.  You can hear the bulls frustration before the doors are opened as the containers jump and groan as the bulls inside take their tempers out on their steel cage. 

When first released some charge around madly whilst others take a moment or two to get their bearings before rising to the promptings of the numerous 'wanabe' Toreadores who wave t-shirts, flags and friends in front of the enraged animals.  At night time, to improve the spectacle, they tie rags soaked in oil to the horns and then set them alight and then proceed to torment the unfortunate animal (see Figs 1-4)!

 
Figure 1.  These shots were taken in Casinos 2 years ago.  This first one is the fixing of the apparatus that is then set alight.  Pulling the tail seems to be the standard method of control!

Figure 2.  The crowd bait the animal.

Figure 3.  Those daring (or stupid?) enough to confront the bull have various heavy contraptions behind they can shelter.

Figure 4.  Here you can see the apparatus that is aflame.  In Villar last night it appeared to be just cloth tied to the horns and nothing quite as elaborate as this.

Of course bull running and bullfighting are quintessentially Spanish and conjure up Hemingway-esque romantic notions of masculinity, Latin culture and ancient battles of man against beast.  But is it right in the 21st Century?  Is it all not a bit medieval, cruel and out-dated?  The Spanish argue, of course, that it is an essential part of their culture and heritage, like Yorkshire pud and cricket are for the Brits, or perhaps like owning a gun is for Texans.  But does that make it right?

In Gandia last week bullfighting was exhumed after 25 years and was accompanied by demonstrations against the reestablishment of this Spanish main course.  Animal rights activists were up in arms and in principal I agree.  But the Spanish are nothing but controversial, and demonstrations organised by, what were primarily English-speaking organisations, will be unlikely to lead to any change in attitude or policy.  As well as being anti-change, highly stubborn and pragmatic in the extreme, the Spanish are very practical and are just as likely to say, 'if you don't like it, then don't live here,' as they are to listen! 

Attitudes are changing here but the Latin temperament resists change with a stubbornness that borders on futility sometimes.  What the rest of the world thinks is an irrelevance.  It will change when the Spanish deem it can be so and not before!

I'm not sure how I feel about it all.  It is undoubtedly cruel, but in most places they no longer kill the animals afterwards - which I guess is something of a step forward - and in others it has been banned altogether.  But you speak to those involved and they will tell of the industry behind the tradition.  The people that it keeps in work breeding, looking after and feeding the animals which, they argue, have a far better life than most cattle, getting the best grain, the best grass and the best veterinary care - and this we call animal cruelty?  They don't think so!

Figure 5.  The bull is released to run in the streets......

Figure 6.  ......as young guys move in to show their bravery and tempt the bull to charge.....

Figure 7. .....which invariably it does.......

Figure 8. .....with such force that the heavy wooden protectors can be lifted right off the ground!

In the short time I have been living in Spain I have learned that public opinion only matters to the Spanish if it is Spanish public opinion.  They don't care a jot for the opinions of those outside their borders and why should they?  But for me, this 'head in the sand' approach is fundamental to many of the problems that the Spanish and Spain are feeling at the moment.  Spain is supposed to be part of the EU, but is in my experience, more a part of Africa than it ever will be a part of Europe. 

I have talked on this blog before about the problems of the black economy here which are, in my humble opinion, a large part of the financial difficulties that have this country on the economic rack right now.  Here, as with the bullfighting, this is a quintessentially Spanish problem (as it is also in Greece) that the Spanish themselves show no inclination whatsoever to wish to change.  It's just the way it is and what the EU and the rest of the world think just doesn't matter, despite the lip-service Rajoy might pay this on the TV and in Brussels.  It's not going to change till the Spanish wish it to be changed.  And right now they see no reason why things should change - especially when the Germans keep coughing up the billions to fund the atrociously inefficient Spanish banks and (highly corruptible?) governments - when many Spanish still have a lifestyle that most of the world would be jealous of, whether that lifestyle be a tax-paying legal one or black economy, benefit-receiving one!  The upshot is the same.  No change!

Only things are changing.  The young (by which I mean the under-30's) are suffering like no Spanish have suffered in living memory.  They are leaving University with good degrees and absolutely no hope whatsoever of gaining a (legal) job, probably ever!  So they are leaving in droves for the more financially secure shores of Germany, Switzerland, England, the USA and elsewhere.  If the Spanish economy is bad now, it will be much worse in 10 years time because there will be no new businesses, no innovation, no new industries and (I'm sure) still no jobs!  And what's more, what jobs there will be will be left vacant because there will no young people to fill them.  This is not just a brain drain it is a full blown generation drain and one from which, I fear, Spain will never recover.

As much as it hurts, the Spanish have got to sit up and take notice of what the world thinks.  Isolated as they are on the Iberian peninsula with only the Portuguese for company (who are experiencing remarkably similar problems) they are a part of the EU and the rest of the world.  Opinions do matter.  And things must change.  The cotton wool in the ears approach has outlived its' usefulness and if Spain doesn't make substantial change, and quickly, then things will only get worse.  Far worse!

Trying to get things done here, be it official papers or just seeing someone at your bank, is a lesson in futility.  Business-wise Spain is in the 19th Century and technology-wise in the 20th.  It defies belief that the Spanish people cannot see things as they are and cry out for things to change.  But they don't.  They just keep their heads firmly buried in the sand and hope that the storm passes by overhead without too much damage being caused. 

How blind can one be?

As for me, I love Spain.  I love the food, I love the people, I love the country, but I deplore the system.  If I could wish for anything for Spain it would be that they sit up and listen, kick out the current system that does not work in any way.  Make it much easier to start new businesses - offer incentives rather than taxing the life out of any new enterprise - and put an end to the black market once and for all.  It just doesn't work!  Start to embrace Spain's foreign contingent, rather than punishing them for not being born in the peninsula.  We are here to stay and we want to work, you just have give us the opportunity.  We've already invested heavily in the country (in property mostly) and would welcome the chance to work, pay taxes and contribute further, if only the system would give us the chance.  These things would be a good starting point and from there going forward might be a whole lot easier.

I'm not quite sure how I went from bull running to inciting rebellion, but somehow I did and, after a quick re-read, I'm glad that I did.  If you have any thoughts on this matter please leave your comments below...I am interested in public opinion and want to know what YOU think!

Back soon
P XX